Uzbekistan Holds Key Rate at 14% as Inflation Outlook Rises

Direct answer

Uzbekistan’s central bank held its key interest rate at 14% on November 4, 2026. It also raised its inflation forecast for 2026 from 6.5% to about 7%, because strong domestic demand and volatile global food and energy prices are keeping price pressures alive.

What happened

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s board left the key rate unchanged at its November 4 meeting. The rate has stayed at 14% since March 2025.

Annual headline inflation stood at 6.4% in September, slightly higher than in August. The bank said fruit and vegetable prices, fuel, and some services pushed prices up. Services inflation rose to 7%, while core inflation, which leaves out some volatile items, stayed at 5.5%.

Households expected inflation of 8.7% over the next 12 months in September, while businesses expected 9.2%. Both figures were lower than before, but the bank still warned that inflation risks had not gone away.

Growth stayed strong. The economy grew by 8.3% year on year in January to September 2026, led by industry, construction, and services. The bank raised its full year growth forecast to around 8% for 2026. It expects inflation to fall back to its 5% target by the end of 2027.

ING, in its review of the decision, said the message was more hawkish than in September. It read the higher inflation and growth forecasts as a sign that a rate cut is now unlikely at the next meeting on December 16, although cuts could still be possible in 2027 if government spending stays restrained and the currency stays firm.

Why it matters for beginners

A central bank’s key rate is the main tool it uses to control inflation. When the bank holds the rate high, borrowing stays expensive. That can slow spending and help stop prices from rising too fast. When it cuts the rate, borrowing usually gets cheaper, which can support spending but can also add to price pressure.

In this case, the bank chose to stay tight. Inflation at 6.4% is above its 5% target for the end of 2027, and the bank now expects about 7% by the end of 2026. Cutting now could risk letting those pressures spread.

For a similar hold decision this week, see our post on Poland, where the central bank also held rates on November 4: https://investclaritypath.com/poland-holds-interest-rates-3-75-percent-inflation-cools/

A hold does not mean rates will never change. It means the bank decided that, on the evidence available now, no change was the safer choice.

What to watch next

Watch the next rate decision on December 16. ING expects another hold at that meeting, after the bank’s tougher tone in November.

Also watch the next inflation readings and any change in inflation expectations. If inflation keeps easing and expectations keep falling, the case for a cut in 2027 will grow stronger. If food or energy prices jump again, or domestic demand stays very strong, the bank may need to stay tight for longer.

FAQ

What is Uzbekistan’s key rate now?

It is 14%, unchanged after the November 4, 2026 decision. It has been at that level since March 2025.

Why did the bank raise its inflation forecast?

It raised the 2026 forecast from 6.5% to about 7% because of strong domestic demand, higher utility tariffs than first expected, and volatile global food and energy prices.

What is the bank’s inflation target?

The bank expects inflation to decline to its 5% target by the end of 2027.

Does a rate hold mean a cut is coming soon?

No. A hold means no change this time. ING said a cut now looks unlikely in December, with scope for cuts in 2027 depending on government spending restraint and currency strength.

Sources

ING reviewed the Central Bank of Uzbekistan decision on November 4, 2026, and Kun.uz reported the central bank’s statement, inflation data, and revised forecasts on the same day. External links: https://think.ing.com/snaps/uzbekistan-hold-extended-but-hopes-for-2027-cuts-remain/ and https://kun.uz/en/news/2026/11/04/central-bank-keeps-key-rate-at-14-raises-2026-inflation-forecast-to-7-59249

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.