Oil Falls as Trump Says Fresh Iran Attacks Are Unlikely

Direct answer

Oil prices fell when markets opened on Monday, November 9, 2026. Brent crude dropped 64 cents, or 0.64%, to $97.67 a barrel, and US crude, known as WTI, fell 35 cents, or 0.40%, to $90.51. The fall came after President Donald Trump said fresh US attacks on Iran were highly unlikely while talks to end the conflict move forward.

What happened

Trump told CNN in a phone interview that it depends on whether Iran signs what he called a very strong agreement. He said the answer is that fresh attacks are highly unlikely to be necessary.

Trump had hinted at renewing major attacks on Iran after last week’s US midterm elections, but there has been no sign of a large-scale US military operation since then. Iran has said it would respond by striking US and Israeli targets if it were attacked again.

Shipping was still hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz, which kept supply worries alive. A tanker passing through the strait over the weekend was reported to have been struck by an unidentified projectile, according to Britain’s maritime security agency.

The drop extends a sharp slide. Brent fell more than 16% last week, its biggest weekly drop since April 2020. JPMorgan said global oil supply exceeded demand by 1.1 million barrels a day in September and 1.4 million barrels a day in October, which points to a market in surplus.

Why it matters for beginners

Oil is a basic input for transport, food production, and many goods, so a sharp oil move can feed into fuel prices and into inflation, the general rise in prices. When war risk falls, traders remove part of the extra price they added for that risk, so oil falls even before any deal is signed.

Our earlier report on oil heading for its worst week since 2020 explains how the market repriced the risk of a supply disruption after the midterm result.

For beginners, the lesson is simple. Oil prices react to expectations about supply, not only to supply itself. If talks fail or attacks on ships continue, prices can jump back just as fast, which is why the market remains volatile.

What to watch next

Watch whether the US-Iran talks produce a real agreement, or whether officials walk back the softer tone. A market bet is not a peace deal, and a senior Iranian official has already told Reuters that Iran and the US remain far from one.

Also watch Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10, and the monthly oil reports due this week from the US Energy Information Administration, OPEC, and the International Energy Agency. Finally, watch for any new incident in the Strait of Hormuz, because the strait carries a large share of the world’s seaborne oil.

Frequently asked questions

Why did oil fall today?

Oil fell because President Donald Trump said fresh US attacks on Iran were highly unlikely while talks to end the conflict progress. Traders removed part of the extra price they had added for war risk.

What is Brent crude?

Brent crude is the main international oil benchmark. It is priced from North Sea oil and is used as a reference for oil sold in Europe, Africa, and much of Asia.

What is WTI crude?

WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate. It is the main US oil benchmark, priced at Cushing, Oklahoma, and it usually trades below Brent.

What is the Strait of Hormuz and why does it matter?

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. A large share of the world’s seaborne oil passes through it, so any disruption there can push oil prices up quickly.

Could oil rise again?

Yes. If the talks break down, if attacks on ships continue, or if supply tightens, prices can rise again just as fast. Oil has moved sharply in both directions in recent weeks.

Sources

Reuters, “Oil falls on open as Trump says fresh Iran attacks ‘unlikely'”, November 9, 2026: https://srnnews.com/oil-falls-on-open-as-trump-says-fresh-iran-attacks-unlikely/

FXStreet, “WTI falls to near $89.50 as Trump hints at reduced US-Iran tension”, November 9, 2026: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-falls-to-near-8950-as-trump-hints-at-reduced-us-iran-tension-202611090048

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.