Americans Grow More Worried About Jobs as Inflation Expectations Stay High, NY Fed Survey Finds

Direct answer

Americans grew more worried about jobs in October, even though the official jobs report looked strong. A New York Fed survey released on Monday, November 9, 2026 found that people now see a higher chance that unemployment will rise over the next year, the highest reading since April 2020. At the same time, households expect inflation to stay well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, at 3.9% over the next year.

What happened

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its October Survey of Consumer Expectations on November 9. The survey asks about 1,300 household heads across the United States what they expect for prices, jobs, pay and their own finances.

The headline finding was about jobs. The survey found that projections the jobless rate will be higher a year from now were at the highest since April 2020, a reading last hit in the early weeks of the Covid pandemic.

People also saw a greater chance of losing their own job. The average perceived chance of losing a job in the next 12 months rose by 0.4 percentage points to 13.9% in October, although that is still below the 12 month average of 14.3%.

There was a brighter note too. The average chance of finding a new job after a job loss climbed by 0.4 percentage points to 46.5%, its highest level since November 2025. So people are more worried about losing work, but also more confident they could find new work if it happened.

Worries about household finances also rose. The average perceived chance of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months climbed by 1.6 percentage points to 13.8%, its highest level since December 2025.

On inflation, expectations did not move. Households see inflation a year from now at 3.9%, three years from now at 3.3% and five years from now at 3%, all matching the September survey. The one year figure was 3.91% to be precise, a touch above September’s 3.90% and above the 3.8% consensus. The five year figure has now sat at 3% for 14 months in a row, a full point above the Fed’s 2% target.

Earnings growth expectations held at 2.6% for the year ahead, just below the 12 month average of 2.7%. Households said their view of their current finances improved a bit from September, while expectations for their finances a year from now were steady, and views on access to credit were unchanged.

The survey was conducted over the course of October, in the run up to the midterm elections. It contrasts with the official jobs data released on Friday, November 6, which showed employers added 165,000 jobs in October, well above forecasts, and the jobless rate easing to 4.1%. Fed officials have regularly described the job market as low hire, low fire, meaning few people are being laid off but few are being hired either.

For more on the official jobs numbers, see our post on the US jobs report beating forecasts in October. For the latest hawkish signal from a Fed official, see Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee on rising services inflation.

Why it matters for beginners

Surveys and official data measure different things, and both matter. The jobs report counts what actually happened last month. A survey shows how people feel about what comes next, and feelings shape spending. If households worry about losing their jobs, they tend to spend less and save more, which can slow the economy.

Inflation expectations matter even more for the Fed. The central bank watches what people expect prices to do, because expectations can become real. If workers expect prices to keep rising by about 4%, they ask for bigger pay rises, and businesses raise prices to cover higher wage costs. That is why the Fed worries when expectations sit a full point above its 2% target for more than a year.

The survey also explains why the Fed is leaning toward another rate hike in December, even after a strong jobs report. Officials are expected to raise rates at the December 8 to 9 meeting, and this survey gives them another reason to act, with inflation expectations stuck above target and job worries rising at the same time.

What to watch next

The next big test comes on Tuesday, November 10, when the US releases October consumer price data. Forecasts call for headline prices to rise 0.3% on the month and core prices, which leave out food and energy, to rise 0.2%. A hotter number would strengthen the case for a December hike.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks later on Monday, and producer price data follows on Friday, November 13. The Fed’s December 8 to 9 meeting is the decision point, and officials will have both inflation reports in hand by then.

FAQ

What is the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations?

It is a monthly survey of about 1,300 household heads across the United States, run by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It asks people what they expect for inflation, jobs, pay, spending and access to credit over the next one, three and five years.

Why are job worries at their highest since April 2020?

The survey found that the share of people expecting unemployment to be higher a year from now hit its highest since April 2020, the early weeks of the Covid pandemic. That does not mean unemployment is that high now, it means more people expect it to rise.

How can people worry about jobs when the jobs report was strong?

The official report counts jobs added in the past month, while the survey measures what people expect next. Employers added 165,000 jobs in October and unemployment eased to 4.1%, but hiring has been slow, and Fed officials describe the market as low hire, low fire. People can feel insecure even when the headline numbers look good.

What are inflation expectations, and why does the Fed watch them?

Inflation expectations are what households think prices will do in the future. The Fed watches them because expectations can shape real behaviour, with workers asking for bigger pay rises and businesses raising prices. Expectations stuck near 4% make it harder for the Fed to bring inflation back to its 2% target.

Will the Fed raise rates in December?

Markets expect it, with traders pricing a high chance of a quarter point hike at the December 8 to 9 meeting, but the Fed decides meeting by meeting. The October consumer price report on November 10 and producer prices on November 13 could still change the picture.

Sources

Reuters, November 9, 2026, “NY Fed survey finds Americans more worried over future jobless levels”, https://985theriver.com/2026/11/09/ny-fed-survey-finds-americans-more-worried-over-future-jobless-levels/ . Federal Reserve Bank of New York, October 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, released November 9, 2026, as reported by Reuters and Seeking Alpha.

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.